Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Trudeau can’t win
In one regard, Trudeau can’t win, neither can O’Toole, Singh or Paul. They are politicians in the public eye and as such, there is always going to be a large group ready to criticize, condemn and attack them no matter what they do.
Trudeau will be criticized for calling an election during these pandemic times. No matter what rationale or justification he has for calling an election now. There will be an abundance of people who will jump down his throat for doing so. Whether they are right or wrong is unimportant, the more important matter is he will be criticized vociferously.
Be all that as it may, it was his call to make and his card to play. He is gambling that he is making the right move. We will see in a month.
My prediction
Basically, nothing will change.
Polls have no validity or value. Look at the Nova Scotia election…the polls were completely wrong. In the case of the federal election, Trudeau’s polls in the past have put him into no man’s land and he won. This time, he was slated as leading by majority likelihood numbers. Don’t bet on it.
Trudeau will not win a majority. But this shortfall is likely because the main reasons for opposing the Liberal Party still exist. Whether the electorate is right or wrong doesn’t matter. What matters more is more that they feel they have every right to upset the apple cart, questioning authority, disrupting the status quo. Social media has made each of us feel we are masters of our domain and can do whatever we want.
Hence, Trudeau acting like an authority is likely to get the “We’ll show him!” response and be returned as a minority government at best.
As for the other leaders, well, again, each has his or her fair share of critics. Right or wrong, there are numerous people who find flaws or believe they have found them in each of the other leaders.
The only party that is on solid ground is the Conservative Party and that ground is finances. They have a lot of money in their coffers and can campaign vigorously, hang the expense. Money does not buy victory but O’Toole’s constant media presence, constant strong media showing might just pay off. Don’t be surprise to see a Conservative minority, a shock to the Liberals, a realistic possibility in the eyes of the Conservatives.
Our prognostication:
Liberal victory, but no majority
Conservatives, second, but O’Toole doomed as party leader, if he loses.
NDP, Singh has sung his last, also doomed as NDP leader if he doesn’t gain seats
Greens, Paul has felt the blades of assassination already, mortal wounds now.
