ANTI side to the “Spending big on nuclear”

The Case AGAINST Ontario’s Nuclear Investment

Catastrophic Cost Overruns Are the Global Norm

• Nuclear projects worldwide consistently suffer massive budget overruns, averaging double the original estimates
• Recent examples paint a grim picture:
  • Vogtle plant (Georgia): Over 2x budget
  • Olkiluoto plant (Finland): 4x original budget
  • Flamanville reactor (France): 7x original cost
• York University Professor Mark Winfield calculates Ontario’s buildout could reach $400 billion—not the projected $73-100 billion
• All cost overruns will be paid through hydro rate increases, which are politically toxic in Ontario

Renewables Are Cheaper, Faster, and Winning Globally

• Wind and solar costs have dropped 70-90% in the last decade
• Now the cheapest ways to generate electricity in most countries worldwide
• 90% of new global power capacity in recent years has been wind and solar
• Renewables paired with batteries provide dispatchable power at less than half the cost of nuclear
• China added 197 times more solar and wind than nuclear capacity in 2023-24, at half the cost
• Renewables generate three times more global electricity than nuclear power

Nuclear’s Track Record Shows a Dying Industry

• The nuclear industry has been in a 25-year decline with more reactors decommissioned than built
• Nuclear adds as much global capacity annually as renewables add every two days
• Wind and solar in just 5 years have already surpassed total nuclear generation that took 65 years to build
• Ontario’s first SMR is already delayed—originally promised for 2028, now pushed to 2030

The Lifespan Claims Don’t Hold Up

• No nuclear plant in the world has ever operated for even 60 years, yet the government claims 80-90 year lifespans
• No Ontario CANDU reactor has reached 45 years of operation
• CANDUs typically require rebuilding at 20-25 years, with longest post-rebuild operation being just 23 years
• Solar panels, by contrast, have proven longevity:
  • 30-year-old Swiss installation still producing at 80% capacity
  • New Hampshire panel still working after 40+ years
  • Bell Labs’ 1954 solar cell still generates electricity after 70+ years
  • Solar produces near-free electricity once paid off (no fuel costs)

Land Use Arguments Are Misleading

• Wind farms allow dual use—livestock grazing and food production continue between turbines
• Solar panels are often installed on rooftops with zero land impact
• “Agro-solar” projects on agricultural land create new farmer income streams without removing land from production
• Nuclear facilities are off-limits to any other use
• Highly radioactive spent fuel requires land set aside for tens of thousands of years

Uninsurable Catastrophic Risks

• Nuclear carries inherent risks of catastrophic accidents, however small
• A Fukushima-scale accident at Pickering would create a 30km evacuation zone extending to Yonge Street
• Millions would be forced to abandon homes and businesses with untold human and economic costs
• The nuclear option requires acceptance of uninsurable risks, paramilitary security, and centralized control

Ontario Chose the Wrong Technology

• The BWRX-300 SMRs use American technology requiring enriched uranium imported from the U.S.
• Former PM Jean Chrétien and Premier Mike Harris warn this transfers tens of thousands (potentially hundreds of thousands) of jobs to the U.S.
• Unlike Canadian CANDU reactors using Saskatchewan uranium, SMRs undermine energy independence
• Heightened security risks with enriched uranium transportation

Missing the Energy Transition

• Renewables can be deployed quickly as demand grows
• Nuclear requires waiting for lengthy construction while burning more natural gas in the meantime
• Every dollar spent on nuclear drives up the cost of building a sustainable energy system
• Ontario is falling further behind in the energy transition that defines successful 21st-century economies
• Not a single new renewable project commissioned in Ontario in 7.5 years while the rest of the world rapidly transitions

Political Decisions Over Sound Economics

• Doug Ford cancelled every renewable project in the pipeline at a cost of $231 million
• Government recognizes low rates are critical, yet focuses on the most expensive option
• Nuclear is “yesterday’s technology” while Ontario ignores the global renewable revolution

The province is putting all its eggs in a very expensive basket