FULL ARTICLE (Davies vs Lukaszuk)

We are bringing together Canadians from different backgrounds and experiences to tackle pressing issues facing our country. We hope these unconventional pairings will bridge divides and spark inspiration for how to make Canada a better place for everyone.

Alberta’s independence fight has moved from the margins to the centre of provincial politics. Over the past five months, Premier Danielle Smith’s “Alberta Next” process has toured the province with town halls and surveys, urging Albertans to consider their future in Canada, with a potential vote on separation in 2026. The debate is unfolding as the province faces strikes, financial strain and mounting pressure on public services.

A fast growing sovereignty movement says Alberta gives too much, gets too little and would thrive as a country of its own. Cameron Davies, the Alberta Republican Party leader who has raised the idea with U.S. officials, argues that a sovereign Alberta could cut its own free trade deals and strengthen its economic security.

But critics argue separation would violate treaties, destabilize the economy and leave Alberta vulnerable in a time of global uncertainty. Thomas Lukaszuk, Alberta’s former deputy premier, who leads “Forever Canadian,” an organization that counters separatism, has amassed more than 400,000 signatures from Albertans who want to keep the province in Canada.

Both sides say they want prosperity for Albertans — but are deeply divided on how to achieve it.

Cameron Davies Alberta is not getting a fair deal. We have a Supreme Court dominated by eastern judges and a Senate where the vast majority were appointed for life by eastern politicians. Economically, much tax and resource revenue leaves Alberta and never returns.

Thomas Lukaszuk You cannot judge whether Alberta has a good deal by looking strictly at economics. As Canadians we’ve developed an exceptionally successful, cohesive, prosperous country that stands out globally as a beacon of stability, democracy and human rights. Our Confederation continues to evolve as we negotiate among ourselves, not as enemies, but as partners in a model of success.

Davies I disagree that economics are secondary. In Alberta, mass immigration over the past decade has led to overcrowded classrooms, limited access to health care and a growing infrastructure deficit across a large, sparsely populated province.

Lukaszuk Overcrowded classrooms and poor health care are real problems. But those matters are provincial. If there is a lack of action in Alberta, it’s because Alberta is a poorly governed province, not because of Confederation.

Davies Money leaves Alberta that we could spend in the province. We could build a lot of hospitals and a lot of classrooms.

Lukaszuk We could not. You’re arguing that if Alberta were to secede or, probably in your preference, join the United States, it would keep all its wealth but wouldn’t have any additional expenses. You can’t look at only one side of the ledger. What you are suggesting is like a divorce where you keep all the shared assets.

Davies The money that flows to Ottawa never returns to Alberta.

Lukaszuk But that is income tax.

It’s like having two neighbours, one that lives in a mansion and the other in a modest home. Both are taxed at the same rate, but the mansion, because of its higher value, pays more taxes. The fact is Alberta has the highest average corporate earnings.

Davies Alberta would be better off if its money stayed to help Albertans have affordable homes, better hospitals, more schools, more nurses and more teachers. The facts are that Alberta pays more into the Canada Pension Plan per capita than any other province. And the facts are that Alberta pensioners would have a higher takehome pension under an Alberta plan.

Lukaszuk They’re not facts. They’re fallacies. If Alberta were to secede from Canada, and if Alberta were truly able to keep the money it currently pays by way of income tax and pension premiums — money that is later redistributed through various programs and benefits — it would then have to establish its own programs.

You’d be setting up your own embassies, central bank, currency and armed forces. You wouldn’t be saving that money.

Davies I never said we’d be saving it. I said we would be able to spend it on Albertans.

Lukaszuk Cam, my concern is that you are undermining Canada’s national interest for United States strategic interests.

Davies It would be in Alberta’s best interest to forge our own path. We were created as a colony in 1905 to support the interests of Ottawa, and nothing’s changed. We have a cando attitude and a cando spirit. We can build our own institutions. Will those come with a cost? They will. But we can afford it if we stop paying for Quebec and the Maritimes.

An independent Alberta would be able to create its own trade partnerships. This past year, I’ve met with people from Sweden, Japan, South Korea and the United States who expressed interest in free trade with an independent Alberta. Opening our markets without having to ask Ottawa for permission is a huge asset.

Canada is at the bottom of the tier in the G20 for prosperity and growth over the past decade. Canada hasn’t met its NATO obligations since 1955, except for two years. We get no benefit from the security of Canada at all, and we don’t need it.

Lukaszuk It’s mindboggling how misleading this is. And it’s very difficult to have this conversation with your U.S. marine uniform hanging right behind you. You are an American, and you are negotiating with the U.S. presidency. Energy security, access to minerals and particularly water are U.S. national interests.

Davies Does it trigger you, Thomas?

Lukaszuk It does trigger me, and it should trigger every Canadian.

Davies I am unapologetically Albertafirst. Like you, I’m an immigrant to Alberta. I love this province, and I want to see Alberta as an independent nation. In 1905, almost a quarter of Alberta’s population was firstgeneration Americans, and we still have deep connections to Montana and Idaho.

Lukaszuk I would expect the Parliament of Canada to strip me of my Canadian citizenship if I were to fly to Poland (my country of birth) and negotiate with the president about the possibility of Alberta seceding from Canada.

Davies It is in the best interest of Alberta to be a free and independent republic.

Lukaszuk You are living in a world of imagination. The first barrier is that Alberta sits on First Nations land covered by treaties signed with the Crown, not with Ottawa or Alberta.

Davies An independent Alberta has a unique position to establish direct partnerships with First Nations.

Lukaszuk Second, Alberta was formed out of the Northwest Territories by a decision of the Parliament of Canada. Unlike the founding provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Alberta’s secession is impossible without Canada’s consent.

Davies You’re reinforcing my point that Alberta was created as a resource colony. We didn’t have access to our mineral rights until 1935.

Lukaszuk Alberta would not be a viable country. It would be a landlocked country, with fewer than five million people, that would be swallowed up by United States.

Davies I think you agree that the will of the people needs to be heard. I know you have a petition — and I congratulate you on that monumental effort.

Lukaszuk That petition was signed in less than two months, and it garnered nearly half a million signatures. Polling shows that between 70 and 80 per cent of Albertans want nothing to do with separatism. In your recent byelections, Cam, your party ran only on a separatist platform, and you were soundly rejected by Albertans.

Davies Other polls show 30 to 40 per cent in favour of separatism, and we haven’t even started a campaign yet.

Lukaszuk There has been a campaign for separation for decades, and it always falls flat because Albertans are rational, they understand economics, and Albertans are Canadian patriots.

Davies Why are you afraid of a referendum?

Lukaszuk A referendum will undermine Alberta and Canada. When Quebec flirted with the idea of separation, they were devastated economically. People moved out. Investment dried up. The same thing happened with Brexit. The same thing is happening in the Basque region of Spain.

Davies Leaders in Quebec are pushing for a referendum as early as 2027 and I hope they succeed. They could pay their own way without Alberta having to foot the bill. The inequality of equalization is ludicrous. It’s time for Albertans to vote on it and forge a new path.

Lukaszuk Cam, why are you having discussions in MaraLago? Why are you having conversations about Alberta separating with the government of the United States?

Davies I am unapologetic in advocating for Alberta. I will talk with the government of Japan. I will talk with the government of South Korea. I will talk with governments as a citizen of Alberta, advocating for independence.

Why not put Albertan independence to the test and let democracy have a say?

Lukaszuk I would prefer this be resolved quickly in the legislature. Referendums can cause irreparable harm. Albertans have rarely been as polarized as they are now — to the point where some families no longer invite each other for Christmas dinner. That needs to stop.

Economic damage may already be starting. Nancy Southern, CEO of ATCO, one of Alberta’s largest companies says she is hearing concerns from international investors over secession talk.

Davies The issue with investor confidence is a corrupt, incompetent provincial government.

Lukaszuk Cam, if the Alberta government is corrupt, would you not rather live in Canada? Most Albertans value that if the province overrides our rights, we still have the federal government as a recourse.

Davies When voters finally have a say, not only will they choose an independent Alberta — they’ll choose a different government in Alberta too.

_____________

Back to “COMMENTARY” post on front page