Mayor:
FIRST PLACE
Kevin Ashe, the incumbent mayor, has some very credible competitors in this race for Mayor: Janice Frampton, Doug Cornell, Shaun Rickard and Lisa Robinson. Each of these has credentials, concrete and credible policies and even a track record of near success. Andrea Wood and Zargham Rasool can be ruled out for name recognition problems as well as some unspoken biases held by voters.
Ashe has a powerhouse campaign machine which no one will defeat.
A significant portion of voters will not vote Ashe, either because they see ‘it is time for a change,’ [See Time for change ], they simply do not like the candidate, or they find his $300K yearly salary very upsetting.
Frampton nearly upset the apple cart last election, 2022, with her second place finish, within 80 votes of Ashe. She will not do it this time either.
Robinson, as controversial as she may be, still appeals to many people. She should not be ruled out, at all…but will the legacy of controversy cause her real problems? Yes. She will finish 3rd at best.
SECOND PLACE – tough call
So who will finish second? Rickard may have made his mark in the Mayor Panel Discussion. Is it enough? There still is a voter gender-xenophobic bias, though publically no one will admit it. Most voters are egalitarian in philosophy but many still hold biases against women and against coloured/costumed races. The biased fringe exists, admit it or not, but how will it affect the outcome.? Remains to be seen. With all that in mind, Rickard will come second.
THIRD PLACE
Third place is another coin toss.
Robinson has the name recognition, council experience and the capability of being the mayor. She is a “full-steam-ahead” person once she latches on to an issue or topic. The question remains, “Can voters set aside the legacy of controversy and conflict?”
Frampton won the mayor panel discussion debate. Her responses were positive, concrete and constructive but do voters really listen? Also, she came within a whisker of beating Ashe last election, 80 votes short in 2022. She sees the Pickering community issues clearly and her solutions sound practical and very plausible. Two questions though: “What is her political experience, never having held political office?” and “Does she have the physical well-being the office demands?”
Cornell, Rasool, Wood
If sexism and racism are unspoken influences on the election, two are at play here. Ageism is another factor. Look old, act ‘old,’ voters will pass on you. Old people are ‘has beens,’ slow to act, slow to speak, slow to think. That’s not fact, but the view taken by ageists. Cornell may be viewed this way by some voters, though the reality is far from the truth. Cornell was sharp with factual information throughout the debate, quick with posing plausible solutions to municipal problems and he explained them pointedly and succinctly. Nevertheless, he is an older candidate which may impact negatively on his vote numbers at the ballot box if the voter has visual memory. Rassool and Wood are obviously foregone conclusions.
Final Outcome: Ashe, Rickard, Frampton, Robinson.
