Fascist Failure

The State of Trump

Timothy Snyder  |  February 25, 2026

Overview: Trump is Failing at Fascism

Trump’s fundamental problem is structural: to complete a fascist political transition, a leader needs a bloody, popular, and victorious war. That prize remains out of his reach. The State of the Union was full of fascist atmospherics — but underneath them lay blowhard exhaustion.

The Fascist Playbook — and How Trump Fits It

Fascism has a recognisable template, and Trump has embraced it willingly. The State of the Union displayed all its core elements:

• A leader who transcends law and presents himself as the embodiment of the national will.
• Denial of truth in favour of grand narratives of struggle against a chosen enemy.
• An imaginary golden age to be restored.
• A designated enemy — in this case, Democrats, linked rhetorically to immigration and crime.
• Celebration of physical force: ICE raids, concentration camps, and the spectacle of domination.

All of this is real and alarming. But it is also stasis. Trump remains unpopular, the economy is weak, and the murder of civilians in Minnesota — met with big lies — did not suppress protest. What is missing is the crucial ingredient that would move the country from competitive authoritarianism into fully realised fascism.

Why Fascism Needs a Major War

Fascism requires a major foreign war — not merely for conquest, but for domestic transformation. War kills one’s own people and thereby generates a reservoir of meaning that justifies indefinite rule, further oppression, and the framing of all life as endless struggle within a rigid hierarchy. Without this, a fascist leader cannot consolidate power beyond competitive authoritarianism.

Trump’s Search for a Shortcut

Trump senses the need for war but, characteristically, seeks a shortcut. In the State of the Union, he substituted real conflict with inflated substitutes:

• An Olympic hockey game against Canada was framed as a great international struggle, complete with a Presidential Medal of Freedom for a goaltender.
• The extraction of Maduro from Venezuela was compared, absurdly, to the Second World War.
• War preparations against Iran were discussed with visible uncertainty — looking around hopelessly and waving his hands.

He is happy to talk about war with Iran and hope that others will somehow deliver it. But he cannot deliver it himself.

Iran: Two Scenarios

The relevant institutions have been abolished and the appropriate diplomatic tools forsaken. That leaves only two plausible outcomes for Iran policy:

Scenario 1 — Nothing Much Happens

The navy sails away. Perhaps some missiles are fired, perhaps not. Trump claims an incredible victory and declares a miraculous peace. The tens of thousands of murdered Iranian protesters he claims to champion are quietly forgotten. This has no meaningful effect on domestic politics and does not advance the fascist transition.

Scenario 2 — Invasion

An invasion is the only escalation that could theoretically advance a fascist transition. But it would not work. Trump and his advisors are incompetent, war is hard, and Americans will not be patient. Without a rapid victory — which is unlikely — or a coherent explanation of objectives — which is absent — an invasion of Iran would likely be so catastrophic domestically that Trump would not survive the year as president.

The Fundamental Contradiction: Warlord and Dealmaker

Trump wants it both ways. He wants to be the feared warlord — and also to make money and have his corruption repackaged as peacemaking. The word “deal,” which he uses constantly in the context of Iran, effectively signals: “we can be bribed.” This is the common thread running through American foreign policy under his administration. He then expects to be praised as a great peacemaker deserving of a prize.

A Biographical Pattern

The pattern is consistent across his life. A man from Queens who wanted to break rules, make money in real estate, and be accepted in Manhattan. He failed at that. Now he attempts the same venture on a larger scale — breaking rules and making money as President — but still craving bourgeois acclamation: remodelled houses and gold trinkets.

The State of Trump: Stuck

Trump is failing at fascism because he can break things but cannot make them. He can bluster but cannot triumph. He is tired, every day is harder than the one before, rivals wait in the wings, and elections are approaching. Between now and November 2026, he has two realistic moves:

• Win a war — which he cannot.
• Suppress the vote — which he has already telegraphed his intention to attempt.

There is one further gambit: he could combine the two by claiming that the very disaster of a war he himself started — in Iran or elsewhere — means elections must be suspended due to associated terrorist threats. If journalists, judges, and civil society are prepared for this move, it will fail.

He has already tried to steal an election and failed. The fact that he tried and failed once means he should certainly fail again — if people are ready.

The State of the Union: Resistance and What Comes Next

Fascism does not fail on its own. The resistance so far has been real and significant:

• Millions in street protests.
• Thousands in cities when it has mattered most.
• Individual expressions of courage and commitment throughout civil society.
• Continued good journalism — including strong local reporting — even as major outlets collapse.
• Civil society groups filing lawsuits and making plans.

Trump has brought the country to a threshold he cannot cross. But there is no return to normality. The United States remains in competitive authoritarianism, with fascists in positions of authority and federal institutions carrying out policies of oppression incompatible with the rule of law. There will be more bad news in the coming months — and more moments of courage and organising.

Looking Ahead: November 2026

There will be elections in November, but they will not be ordinary elections — they will require an extraordinary effort. The opponents of authoritarianism can win, but only through an uphill struggle: building broad coalitions, articulating better futures, and refusing the comfort of assuming things will simply revert.

We cannot go back — but we can do much better.